✅ TEAM LISTS CONFIRMED

Penrith Panthers vs Melbourne Storm Tips – Round Round 24

Top 4 clash, potential grand final preview • Thursday 14 August, 7:50pm • CommBank Stadium

Same Game Multi
$5.80
Confidence 78%
  • Panthers -5.5
  • Under 42.5 Total Points
  • Brian To'o Anytime Try Scorer

Why: Nine-game winning streak meets a Storm side missing their elite fullback. Papenhuyzen's absence removes Melbourne's most dangerous counter-attacker, forcing them into a grinding style that suits Penrith. The data shows Storm's left edge defense concedes 41% of their tries, perfectly aligning with To'o's right wing attack. Without Paps' speed out the back, Melbourne will struggle to score quickly, keeping the total low while Penrith's structured attack grinds out a comfortable win.

Best Value Tryscorer

$2.10

Brian To'o Anytime Try Scorer

Storm's left edge defense is their achilles heel conceding 41% of all tries. To'o operates on Penrith's right directly opposing this weakness. With Seve playing his first game in months and Meaney adjusting to fullback To'o should feast. He scored a double against Storm in Round 3.

Other props: Casey McLean anytime ($2.70), Xavier Coates anytime ($2.10), Dylan Edwards anytime ($3.00), Grant Anderson anytime ($2.50)

Match Preview

Territory Control Sets The Tone

Penrith's forward pack has been devastating during their nine-game winning streak, averaging over 2000 running metres per game with 700+ post-contact metres. Without Papenhuyzen's game-breaking speed from the back, Melbourne will struggle to escape their own end against this relentless Panthers machine. The kicking game becomes crucial here, with Nathan Cleary's precision against a makeshift Storm back three of Meaney, Seve, and Chan. Cleary will pepper the corners early, testing Seve's positioning after his long layoff and Meaney's adjustment to fullback. This territorial dominance should see Penrith controlling 55%+ possession, forcing Melbourne into an energy-sapping defensive workload that leaves them vulnerable late. The Panthers' ability to maintain pressure through repeat sets and force dropouts has been exceptional, and without their elite fullback to relieve pressure, Storm will find themselves defending their line repeatedly.

Edge Warfare Decides The Result

The statistical mismatch on Storm's left edge defense (conceding 41% of tries) against Penrith's right-side attack creates the game's most exploitable avenue. Brian To'o has been devastating in this exact scenario before, scoring a double when these teams met in Round 3. Marion Seve's return after a four-month absence puts him under immediate pressure against the NRL's most structured edge attack. The Panthers will target this channel relentlessly through Cleary's cross-field kicks, Talagi's short balls, and Edwards' sweeping plays. On the opposite edge, Casey McLean's 53% try-scoring rate will draw defensive attention, creating more space for To'o. Melbourne's reshuffled backline lacks the cohesion to handle Penrith's multi-layered edge attacks, especially in the second half when fatigue sets in from all the defensive work. This edge dominance supports both the line bet and To'o as an anytime scorer.

Defensive Grind Keeps Score Low

Both teams pride themselves on elite defense, but the absence of Papenhuyzen fundamentally changes Melbourne's scoring potential. The Storm averaged 30 points per game with Paps, but in games without him, that drops significantly as they lose their primary line-break threat. Penrith's defense has been suffocating during their streak, conceding just 12.4 points per game over the last five weeks. The wet, dewy conditions typical of Sydney night games in August favor the defenders, making handling difficult and reducing second-phase play. Melbourne's high error rate (15+ in multiple recent games) will be exacerbated without their fullback's ability to clean up loose balls. With both teams likely to complete around 75-78%, scoring opportunities will be limited. The game shapes as a defensive arm-wrestle where field position becomes paramount, and with Penrith controlling territory through their superior kicking game, they'll grind out a victory that lands under the total while covering the spread through their systematic edge attacks that eventually break Melbourne's resistance.

Team Lists & Changes

Penrith Panthers

Home

Ins

  • Unchanged

Outs

  • Isaah Yeo (shoulder)

Melbourne Storm

Away

Ins

  • Marion Seve, Nick Meaney to fullback

Outs

  • Ryan Papenhuyzen (concussion)
⚡

Why This Matters

Papenhuyzen's absence cripples Melbourne's counter-attack. Seve hasn't played since Round 4. Meaney at fullback lacks Paps' speed. Panthers unchanged and humming.

Squad changes driving edge, totals and SGM angles.

Head to Head & Form

Penrith Panthers — Form Notes

Last few weeks
Won 9 straight including 48-12 thrashing of Knights. Averaging 34 points during the streak. Beat three top-8 sides in last five weeks. Running for 2000+ metres per game. Cleary and Talagi combination clicking perfectly.

Melbourne Storm — Form Notes

Last few weeks
Won 4 of last 5 but unconvincing. Only scored 22 points against Broncos despite dominating. Missing Hughes and now Papenhuyzen. High error rate continues (15+ in multiple games). Defensive structure still elite but attack stuttering.

Recent History

H2H
Storm lead H2H 3-2 in last 5. Round 3 2025: Storm won 30-24 despite 15 errors. Both Panthers wingers scored doubles in that game. Panthers won the 2024 grand final 14-6. Storm struggle at CommBank (12-10 record).

Key Matchups

Brian To'o vs Marion Seve/Joe Chan: Massive mismatch with Seve's rust. Nathan Cleary vs Tyran Wishart: Cleary's kicking game should dominate. Moses Leota vs Stefano Utoikamanu: Battle of elite props. Dylan Edwards vs Nick Meaney: Edwards' support play crucial against makeshift fullback.

X-Factors

Nathan Cleary (game management master) Cameron Munster (Storm's only elite playmaker available) Brian To'o (attacking weak edge) Harry Grant (must be brilliant from dummy-half)

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